MLB Playoff Odds and Their Sportsbook Payouts

With the first month of the MLB season coming to a close, fans and analysts alike have a better understanding of how each team is fairing for the 2022 season. While the people behind the scenes at all the major online sportsbooks are changing the odds on a constant basis, that doesn’t mean that the average bettor can’t find value among the numbers. What we did at CasinoRange is pull the latest playoffs odd numbers for each MLB team from Fangraphs and their betting odds to make the playoffs from DraftKings online sportsbook. Analyzing these two data points together can show where to place your bets for MLB Future betting. 

Smart Bet, Small Payout In The NL West

The Los Angeles Dodgers, arguably the best team in baseball with one of the best lineups in the history of the game, have the best odds to make the playoffs. As they are this great powerhouse of a team, they also have the shortest odds of out any MLB team to make the playoffs at 96.10%. While nothing is a lock-in terms of sports betting, the Dodgers come pretty close, especially this early in the season. However, your winnings will be minimal with a $20 wager paying out $0.80. 

The Best Of The Rest

The teams in the table above are considered the teams that are trying to stop the Dodgers from winning the World Series this year. The first interesting point to note about these teams is that some of them are in the same division. The Blue Jays and Yankees are both in the AL East while the Mets and Braves are both in the NL East. As only one team can win their division, the oddsmakers believe that they will still be good enough to make the Wild Card game, which does count as the playoffs.

If you’re looking for a heavy favorite to play it safe, the smart bet would be on the Astros as opposed to the Blue Jays. While they both have the same playoff odds, the Astros have the better betting odds on DraftKings, and thus the better payout. A bet to potentially steer clear from would be betting on the White Sox to make the playoffs. While they are in a weaker division, their potential payout is lower than teams with similar playoff odds like the Mets or Braves.

Potential Value Within Difficult Divisions

The Giants and Red Sox are two teams with storied histories behind them and are both some of the better teams in the league. The only issue is that they both play in very tough divisions. Some would argue that the Red Sox, who play in the AL East, play in the hardest division in all of baseball. The Giants, who play in the NL West and had the best record in baseball last year, have to deal with the likes of the Dodgers and the Padres in their division. While these two teams are very good, they have a very sturdy competition to get into the playoffs. But as they are both good teams and as the outcome of baseball games varies more than any other sport, it’s very possible that one or both of these teams can make the playoffs with a decent payout to go along with it.

The Diamond In The Rough In The AL West

The Angels are a very interesting case. They have two of the best players in baseball in Shohei Ohtani (2021 MVP) and Mike Trout (3-time MVP). However, their pitching has consistently been a problem and they haven’t reached the playoffs since 2014. With that being said, they hope to have found the answer this offseason and look to have a better season than the last few. Where the value lies is when comparing the DraftKings & playoff odds. Their playoffs odds are essentially a coin flip but the payout would be more than even money. A $20 bet would payout $26, more than doubling your bet.

Consider betting black on a roulette table. In American Roulette, the odds are 47.4% to land on black. In European Roulette, the odds are 48.6%. With either game, the winnings would be paid out 1 to 1. The odds for the Angels to make the playoffs are higher than either of these bets and pay out 13 to 10, higher than 1 to 1.

No Value Wagers

While some of the team names in the table above are household names, they should not be wagered on to make the playoffs for the 2022 MLB season. For one, their odds to make the playoffs are less than 50%, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies being less than 40%. Secondly, their DraftKings odds have the negative (-) sign in front meaning the payout would be less than what you put in. So the odds of your bet winning is less than a coin flip while the payout is less than favorable when placing a risk that high. If you want a better risk-reward payout, see the teams below.

Long Shots

This group of teams are the ones who may have a chance of making it to the playoffs but will have to have luck on their side. None of these teams are expected to win their division either as their route to the playoffs will have to be, more likely than not, through the Wild Card round. The Twins, with just about one-thirds odds to make the playoffs have a 2:1 payout on DraftKings sportsbook. A team to avoid are the Mariners with a 27.5% chance to make the playoffs but with only a +165 wagering odds.

When looking at these teams, you need to wager the risk with the reward so it makes sense. Why bet on the Tigers to make the playoffs at an 8.3% chance to make it when their payout is worse than the team above them (Cubs at 9.8%) or below them (Royals at 7.3%). With only a 1% difference in making the playoffs between the Tigers and the Royals but the Royals having an 84% higher payout, the Royals seem to have a lot more value compared to the Tigers.

No Shots

With every team in this table having DraftKings odds +800 or longer and playoff odds less than 5%, it’s hard to find any value or surprises on this list. The MLB still has an issue with teams that tank (actively lose) for a better future and it’s apparent that a lot of these teams do not have a chance this season. Take the Athletics, who had a fire sale before the season began and traded away all their best players. Or just look at Max Scherzer, the ace of the New York Mets. For the 2022 season, he will be paid $43.3 million while the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles will be paying their entire roster $40.2 million and $37 million respectively. The point of this last table is to steer clear of every team on this list. Is there a chance for a lottery ticket among the group? Absolutely. Is it very likely that your bet will payout? Not really.

Back to the roulette wheel example. If you were to choose any singular number on the roulette wheel, your odds of winning would be 2.63% with a +3500 payout. That would put you just below the Rangers' chance to make the playoffs but right above the Athletics chances, with a much higher payout when playing roulette.

Moving Forward

By the time this is posted, some of these odds will have already changed. That’s the speed of which online sportsbooks are updating their wagering odds. Every roster move has an impact on how a team will finish out the year. Even with the changes, you now have the tools to make some MLB Future wagers on which teams can make the playoffs and how to find value amongst all the numbers.