NFL Offseason News and Super Bowl Odds Implications
Written by Ian
Published date · April 4, 2022 | Last Updated · Dec. 14, 2022 | Read Time: 6 mins
While a lot of the sportsbook action dies down during the NFL Offseason, one of the wager types that almost never goes away are NFL Future bets. There are many different types of Future bets that a bettor can make, whether the bet is in regards to a Division winner, the next MVP winner, or even Super Bowl Champion. The Super Bowl Champion Future bet is one of the most popular bets that bettors make because of their long odds. All Super Bowl odds before the season starts have plus odds because the likelihood of the bet paying out is considered a long shot. What many people who are new to sports betting online may be surprised to see, the Super Bowl champion from the previous year almost never has the best Future odds for the next season. For example, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in 2022 but the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl in 2023 are the Buffalo Bills (+650), while the Rams are tied for the third-best odds at +1000. For reference, the team with the worst odds to win the Super Bowl are the Houston Texans at +20000, with a $10 bet paying out at $2,000.
This NFL Offseason has been one of the wildest in recent memory with several moving parts and big-name players jumping ship to new teams. While the quarterback position has the biggest impact in terms of betting odd changes, there have been some moves this offseason that have shown that other skill positions can move the Super Bowl odds in favor of their new team. Let’s look at some of the major moves that happened this offseason and how it affected the NFL Future Super Bowl Sportsbook odds.
The Tom Brady Effect
When Tom Brady announced his retirement on February 1st, 2022, much to the happiness of the rest of the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneer Super Bowl odds went from +1000 to +2200 due to one of the greatest players of all time leaving the helm and with uncertainty at the quarterback position. Then, a little more than a month later, Brady announced that he was coming out of retirement for at least one more season. Before the announcement, you could find odds as long as +2800 for the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl. After the announcement, however, the odds were more in the range of +800 to +1000 depending on which online sportsbook you visited.
A QB Situation In Denver
The Denver Broncos have been trying to figure out their future at quarterback ever since Peyton Manning retired in 2016. Players like Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, and Brock Osweiler have all been, at one point or another, the answer to the Bronco's QB future. In 2021, Aaron Rodgers was rumored to go to Denver at the end of the season. The rumors became a bit louder when Nathaniel Hacket, former Offensive Coordinator of the Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers team), was announced as the Denver Broncos' new head coach. This changed the Denver Broncos Super Bowl odds as they increased from +3500 to +2000 as many believed this would signal Aaron Rodgers going to the team as well. Aaron Rodgers never made it to the team but the Denver Broncos believed they found their quarterback answer in a trade to acquire Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, giving up several first-round draft picks and quarterback Drew Lock. This improved the Bronco's Super Bowl odds yet again, going from +2000 to +1400, giving them the 5th best odds in the league. The trade also had a large impact on the Seattle Seahawks as well, dropping their Super Bowl odds from +4000 to +7500.
The Packers Rollercoaster
The Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers have not been short of controversy over the last couple of years with many in the league believing that he would either join a new team or retire before the 2022 season. To everyone’s surprise (including the sportsbook oddsmakers), Aaron Rodgers came back to the Packers with a 4 year, $200 million dollar deal. This improved the Packers' Super Bowl odds from +1500 to +1000 after the deal was signed. While not as large of an impact as the Aaron Rodgers signing, Davante Adams, star wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers, has had his controversy with the team as well. Well on 3/28, Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders and improved the Raiders' Super Bowl odds from +6000 to +5000. The Packers, even losing their star receiver, only saw a drop in their Super Bowl odds from +1100 to +1200.
Deshaun Watson’s Team Carousel
The Houston Texans were one of the worst teams in 2021 with little hope of winning with any players on their roster. They also have had a fallout with current star quarterback Deshaun Watson over the last few years that certainly didn‘t help the team's standing. With a no-trade clause in Deshaun Watson’s contract, he held a lot of power in terms of what the Texans can do in regards to trading Watson. The two teams that Watson supposedly waived his no-trade clause for were the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. Before the rumors of Watson being traded to New Orleans or Atlanta started, their Super Bowl odds were around +4000 and +7000 respectively. At the peak of the rumors of Watson being traded to either team, both of their Super Bowl odds came extremely close to +2000. Once the dust settled, however, Watson decided to waive his no-trade clause to the Cleveland Browns. With several first-round picks and other picks moved in the trade to the Texans, it’s clear the value that the Browns think Watson will bring to the team. The sportsbook odds think so as well as the Brown’s Super Bowl odds improved from +4000 to +2000 after the trade. With the move, Cleveland has top 10 Super Bowl odds while the two teams that missed out on Watson, Atlanta and New Orleans, are in the bottom half of the league.
Mid-Tier QB Movement
The Indianapolis Colts were poised for a solid year in 2021 and doubled down on that thought by going out and trading for former MVP Candidate Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Wentz underperformed and choked in a game late in the season that would have brought the Colts into the playoffs. Seeing that Wentz was not the future of the team, the Colts decided to move on and traded him to the Washington Commanders. When Wentz was traded, something interesting happened regarding the Super Bowl sportsbook odds. Nothing. After the Wentz trade had been completed, the odds for his former team and now present team did not move. Before and after the trade, the Washington Commanders had Super Bowl odds of +5000 while the Indianapolis Colts, with no clear Quarterback on their roster, kept the +2500 Super Bowl odds they had before the trade. It wasn’t too long after moving on from Wentz that the Indianapolis Colts found their replacement at quarterback. After making a trade with the Atlanta Falcons, the Colts received Matt Ryan to be their new starting quarterback. The Colts saw a slight improvement in their odds going from +2500 to +2200. The Falcons, however, saw their odds plummet from +6000 to +10000, making their Super Bowl odds one of the worst in the league.
Another Star Reciever On The Move
In an unprecedented offseason for wide receiver news with the Davante Adams trade and a head-scratching contract given to Christian Kirk from the Jacksonville Jaguars in the amount of $72 million over 4 years, another wide receiver was on the move. The Kansas City Chiefs traded their All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for a large haul of draft picks. The trade saw the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds go from +850 to +900, while the Dolphins went from +7000 to +4000, putting them from the bottom of the league into a mid-level team. While their receiving core could be one of the best in the league with the addition of Hill, their quarterback situation is still up in the air. With how crazy this offseason has been, who knows if the Dolphins' Super Bowl odds will change again?