Secrets for Sports Betting from the Pros
If you aren’t a professional sports bettor, the biggest question you will ask yourself most often is: what should I bet on? Unfortunately, most of us don’t have an algorithm-driven model of expected values pumping out sports betting recommendations on a supercomputer. Still, we can bring a similar approach that can give us an edge when we bet.
Most of us will have a bet on the game on tv or the upcoming NFL fixtures and racing, and sometimes the choice is just too much. Picking the right bet can be a daunting task; even if you don’t bet, frequently you will still want to find some smart bets when you do dive into the action. In actuality, there are some super simple strategies that you can adopt to help you find value each week, and it might surprise you how simple these secrets and strategies are.
Odds aren’t the most important factor
This might sound like a counterintuitive point, but looking at the odds too early in the week can greatly impact your ability to predict the right outcome. By looking at the odds, you will subconsciously form an opinion on the game on the odds you see. Let us put that in perspective with an example.
For example, Tottenham Hotspur are playing Arsenal at home. You may have an inkling that Spurs should win this, but before you think about the game and the potential match-ups, strategies, and outcomes, then you take a glance at the odds and see Arsenal are priced at 1.9 to win. So what are your chances of Spurs being the favorites now?
What you should always be doing with every bet you place is assessing the probabilities of the upcoming games and then seeing if the odds offered are presented with a value option. Never the other way round. Now it is time to look at the first proper step.
Take a View
This is the easy step. This may be a single TV soccer game, a slate of weekend games, or the outright markets for a particular league, but the process is the same. Use your knowledge of the league, a spreadsheet of stats, information taken from the internet, a model that you have built, or even just your instincts to form a view of what the result could be.
For a full weekend of soccer games or races, this can mean ignoring the ones you think are a puzzle and focusing on those markets where you have a strong opinion on what could happen. For example, perhaps you have marked down a team, a horse, or a particular player is having been unlucky, or your model is strongly predicting a win, or it could be you’ve spotted a strong trend.
Whatever it is, this is a starting point. It could be you think that Chelsea are a strong favorite to win, or you think a game is going to be a low-scoring one or that a team is being overrated based on recent form. It all starts with a viewpoint and what you do with it.
Refine your Perspective
This is the most important step and one most people miss out on. It isn’t enough to just have an opinion without being backed up by data and stats. So how do you do that?
Listen to what tipsters say. Many great podcasts and article insights can help you initially. Hearing smart gamblers discuss their bets will help you figure out their line of thought. There is a host of tipster websites and accounts to read that can guide your betting as well.
Look at your hunches against previous results, current form, and head-to-head stats. Are you overestimating a trend? Are you not basing your decisions in with data behind it?
If you are in a hurry, then we have a quickfire checklist for you here:
- First, ask yourself how much do you know about the game? Do you have a system? Do you know a lot about the teams involved? Use this is to form an initial impression.
- Look at the available data, read the top tipsters, ask friends with high opinions, and listen to podcasts.
- Work out what you think the odds should be, then check the odds; if the odds are higher than you thought, then you may have found the ticket.
- Look for reasons why it could go wrong.
- Refine your view, then place your bet and sit back and enjoy!