Projecting States With The Best Odds To Win The World Series
Written by Ian
Published date · June 17, 2022 |
Last Updated · Dec. 14, 2022 | Read Time: 7 mins
Everyone loves a future bet, especially when it comes to betting on the champion for that year. Whether you pick the Super Bowl winner during training camp or you pick the World Series winner before Opening Day, there’s nothing that keeps you engaged throughout the season than a wager that only collects when either your team is eliminated or the season ends with your selection as champion. At DraftKings Online Sportsbook, they’re taking a unique approach on MLB future champion betting. They allow you to select the state of who will be the 2022 MLB World Series champion. With our guide below, see which state provides the best value and who may end up paying out by season’s end.
With the best betting odds of any state, the state of California, besides the “Any Other State” category, has the most teams on their list. There are a total of 5 teams in the state of California followed by their odds to win the World Series:
- Dodgers (19%)
- Padres (7%)
- Giants (2%)
- Angeles (<1%)
- A’s (<1%)
The Dodgers were heavy favorites to win the title at the beginning of the season, but the Yankees have taken over that role with their long win streaks and heavy-hitting team. With that being said, the Dodgers still have arguably the most star-studded lineup and pitching staff in all of baseball and can never be counted out. The Padres have the next best odds in the state and have been missing their best player, Fernando Tatis Jr., for the whole season thus far. With a 90% chance to make the playoffs, the Padres could be a dark horse when Tatis comes back. These two teams are the reason that the state of California has the best betting odds. While the Giants, Angeles, and A’s don’t pose much of a threat in the postseason, having two of the top teams in the same state as well as having the highest combined World Series-winning odds poses California as the fair value in terms of a sports bet.
Any Other State (+250)
Picking a state other than those listed has the second-highest odds on the DraftKings’s site. This number really comes down to the fact that there is a high volume of the out of state teams. There are currently 11 teams that don’t have a state that you can wager on that fall into this category. These teams include:
- Blue Jays (7%)
- Braves (7%)
- Twins (3%)
- Brewers (3%)
- Red Sox (2%)
- Mariners (<1%)
- Diamondbacks (<1%)
- Rockies (<1%)
- Tigers (<1%)
- Nationals (<1%)
- Orioles (<1%)
While there are definitely some contenders on the list like the Blue Jays and the defending champion Braves, the 11 teams only combine for a total percentage of 22.86% to win the World Series. This ranks them third behind both New York and California. Because of this, wagering on “Any Other State” is not a good value baseball bet.
New York (+255)
Where you can find value is in the New York DraftKings selection. While there are only two teams in the state, the New York Yankees (20%) and New York Mets (7%) have the best odds and are tied for fourth-best odds of winning the World Series. Combined, it gives the two New York teams a 27% chance of winning the World Series, the best out of every category. The Yankees are projected to have the best record in baseball with 105 wins and over a 99% chance of making the playoffs. With a starting rotation that shuts down just about any team from pitchers one to five and a batting order led by Aaron Judge who could have over 6o home runs this year, there are no signs of this team slowing down. In another section of the Big Apple, the Mets have a solid rotation with incredible depth. The bats have also come alive as the season has progressed. With the Mets also having 92% of making the playoffs, there’s a fair chance that they could be winning it all as well. To put it simply, the analytics have the state of New York with the best odds to win the World Series while DraftKings has them in third for odds to win. This shows the tremendous value for the Empire State.
The state of Texas has the fourth-best odds according to DraftKings to win the title and that mainly comes from the Houston Astros’ odds to win the World Series. The Texas Rangers are the only other team in Texas and they have a less than 1% chance of winning the World Series. The Astros have a 7% chance of winning the World Series, giving the state of Texas the fourth-best odds of making the DraftKings wager hit. The Astros play in potentially the weakest division in baseball, the AL West. This all but guarantees them making the playoffs where any team can take advantage and pull an upset. This team is older and potentially past their prime, but still, has a star-studded cast like Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The rest of the list each consists of the state has two teams, one with a low but not impossible chance of winning the World Series and one team that will essentially not only not win the World Series, but won’t make the playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Rays (3%) and Florida Marlins (<1%) occupy the state of Florida. The Marlins seem to be in a constant rebuild and haven’t been playoff-ready since trading away former star Christian Yelich in 2018. The Rays do have a better chance than most but play in the very tough division of the AL East. According to the analytics, they have the same odds to win their division as they do to win the World Series at 3%. With upcoming superstar Wander Franco starting to find his groove, the Rays may surprise teams and sneak into the playoffs. The World Series may be a long shot. And out of the long shots at the bottom of this list, Florida (3.14%) provides the worst value.
The Chicago White Sox (3%) and Chicago Cubs (<1%) call Illinois home. The Cubs started their rebuild last season and have not made any attempt at competing this season. Only veteran Wilson Contreras has been a bright spot on the team. Just 11 miles down the road, the Chicago White Sox has been a disappointment. Many believe it has to do with Tony La Russa while others blame the lack of hitting beyond Tim Anderson. The factor that gives the White Sox an edge despite the fact that they currently have a losing record is that they are in a weak division that they should be able to win. Regardless, the state of Illinois (3.14%) possesses little value when it comes to the competing teams in the state.
The St. Louis Cardinals (3%) and Kansas City Royals (<1%) are located in Missouri. The Royals are currently not a threat in the MLB landscape and haven’t been in quite some time. They have a few good prospects on the way but don’t have much hope for 2022. The Cardinals however provide a very solid team from both a batting and pitching perspective. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado provide fantastic batting numbers while Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas continue to dominate the starting rotation. While on paper there are teams that are better than them, the Cardinals have been the big underdogs before and have pulled off the upset to win it all. All these factors in addition to the fact that +2800 is the best payout for all the states with a 3.14% chance to win give the greatest value to Missouri for a long shot.
An even longer longshot is Pennsylvania with the Philadelphia Phillies (2%) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (<1%). The Pirates refuse to pay their players and haven’t had a winning season since 2018. So they’re out for this year. The Phillies have a better chance than the Pirates but have been struggling. Finally, over .500 after a long winning streak, the Phillies had to fire Joe Girardi in order to find success. With stars like J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper, the expectations were set high. Unfortunately, the team hasn’t been living up to them and it doesn’t help that they play in the highly competitive NL East. While the value and payout of Pennsylvania is there if you really believe in the Phillies, there’s a very strong chance that you’re just throwing your money away.
In regards to throwing your money away, that would be making the wager on the state of Ohio to win the World Series. Both the Cleveland Guardians (2%) and the Cincinnati Reds (<1%) play in Ohio. Both teams have exceeded expectations which gives hope for an upset. But the Reds are more than likely to not make the playoffs while the Guardians, by most metrics, will see a return to normalcy soon. Beyond the star power of Jose Ramirez, the Guardians are outperforming where they should be from both a hitting and pitching point of view. Luckily they play in an easy division and could also pose a threat in snatching that away from the White Sox or Twins. But to make it all the way to the World Series, let alone win seems like a fantasy. Unfortunately for the Guardians, this won’t be a reboot of Major League and they will more than likely fall short as will the state of Ohio with 1.14% odds to win the World Series.