What is push (or tie) in blackjack?

The push is a key component of Blackjack, influencing both the player’s experience and strategic decisions. When a tie occurs with the dealer, a seemingly winning hand can result in a neutral outcome, directly impacting choices and game dynamics.

In the following sections, we will break down what a push is, how it affects your strategy, and how probabilities and external factors influence its occurrence. Finally, we will compare push outcomes with other possible results in Blackjack.

Definition of a Push in Blackjack

What is a push?
A push occurs when the player and dealer have the same hand total, and are tied. In this case, the player's bet is returned without any profit or loss.

When does a push happen?
A push occurs when both the player and dealer have identical totals, such as:

• Player: 19, Dealer: 19 → Push
• Player: 21, Dealer: 21 → Push

Pushes can also result from hands obtained after a split or a double down, adding complexity to strategic decisions.

What happens during a push?
In the event of a push, the player’s bet is refunded. There is no gain or loss, but pushes can influence decision-making, particularly after riskier moves like doubling down or splitting.

Impact of Pushes on Blackjack Strategy

Pushes can deeply influence Blackjack strategy. Understanding their implications in different scenarios helps players make informed choices and avoid common pitfalls.

Push on a Natural Blackjack

A natural Blackjack (Ace + 10-value card) typically pays 3:2. However, if the dealer also has a natural Blackjack, the result is a push.

• This push is particularly frustrating because it cancels one of the highest-value hands in the game. It highlights that even the strongest possible hand can lead to a neutral outcome.

Push After a Split

A split involves dividing a pair into two separate hands. Each hand can result in a push independently.

• A push after a split means that the risk taken (doubling the original bet) produces no return. It underscores the importance of following basic strategy, such as splitting eights against a dealer’s 6. Even strong split hands, like two 20s after splitting tens, can be nullified by a push.

Push After a Double Down

Doubling down involves doubling the original bet in exchange for receiving one additional card.

• A push in this context is particularly frustrating because it cancels the opportunity for an increased payout. For example, doubling down on 11 and hitting 21, only for the dealer to reach 21 as well, results in a push. Despite the disappointment, it reminds players that doubling down should only be done when the statistical advantage is significant.

Push on a Strong Hand (e.g., 20)

Even a strong hand, such as 20, can end in a push if the dealer also has 20.

• This scenario highlights the importance of understanding probabilities. Many beginners may be tempted to take unnecessary risks, like hitting on 20 against a dealer’s Ace, but this contradicts basic strategy. A push on a strong hand is disappointing but preferable to a loss.

Push When Taking Insurance

Insurance is a side bet offered when the dealer’s upcard is an Ace, allowing players to bet on the dealer having a natural Blackjack.

• In the case of a simultaneous Blackjack (player and dealer), the main hand results in a push, but the insurance bet is lost. This scenario illustrates why insurance is a statistically poor choice. Experienced players avoid it because it increases losses over the long term.

Statistics and Probabilities of Pushes in Blackjack

General Probability of Pushes

On average, a push occurs in approximately 8% of total hands in Blackjack. This rate covers all scenarios, including splits, doubles, and natural Blackjacks.

Push Probabilities by Hand Type

The following push probabilities are based on simulations using basic strategy, a dealer hitting on soft 17, and a standard 6-deck game:

• Hands below 17: ~5%
  Weak hands rarely result in a push, but it can happen if the dealer also stands on a low total like 16.
• Hands between 18 and 20: ~10%
  These hands are most prone to pushes because they match the totals on which dealers commonly stand.
• Natural Blackjack (21): ~0.5%
  Pushes on naturals are rare and only occur when both player and dealer hit Blackjack.
• Hands after a double down: ~7%
  Double-down pushes usually happen when both player and dealer land on strong totals like 20 or 21.
• Hands after a split: ~8%
  Pushes after splits often occur on strong totals like two 20s from split tens.

Summary of probabilities by hand

Factors Influencing Push Frequency

Number of Decks:

The more decks used, the higher the likelihood of a push. Multiple decks increase the probability of mirrored card distributions.

• Example: With 8 decks, push probability is slightly higher than with a single-deck game.

Dealer Rules on Soft 17:

• If the dealer hits on soft 17, push frequency increases because the dealer reaches totals between 18 and 21 more often.
• If the dealer stands on soft 17, push frequency decreases, as more hands end with the dealer on 17.

Blackjack Variants and Special Rules:

• Blackjack Switch: Higher push rates, especially when dealer totals 22 (push for all players).
• Double Exposure Blackjack: Lower push rates because the dealer wins all ties except Blackjack.
• Atlantic City Blackjack: Standard push rates but with player-friendly rules like late surrender, which may indirectly reduce push frequency by encouraging players to fold losing hands.
• Pontoon: No pushes in the traditional sense; in ties, the banker wins, eliminating push outcomes altogether.
• Spanish 21: Lower push rates because players win on 21 totals even if the dealer also reaches 21.

Comparison with Other Outcomes

In standard Blackjack (using basic strategy with the dealer hitting on soft 17 and six decks), the outcomes typically break down as follows:

• Player Wins: ~42%
  Includes victories from stronger totals, Blackjack (paid 3:2), and successful doubles.
• Player Losses: ~50%
  Includes losses from busting, weaker totals, and unfavourable ties (in variants where ties go to the dealer).
• Pushes: ~8%
  As detailed earlier, mostly from hands totalling 18–20, doubles, or splits.

Summary of probabilities by outcome

Conclusion

The push in Blackjack is more than just a neutral result; it directly impacts strategy, especially during splits, doubles, and strong totals like 20. Understanding push probabilities and the factors that influence them allows players to:

• Better anticipate potential ties.
• Make more rational decisions based on basic strategy.
• Avoid traps like insurance bets.

Although unpredictable, pushes are an integral part of Blackjack. Learning how to incorporate them into your strategy will enhance your long-term performance.